Estimating Long-term Causal Impact Through Surrogate Approach

Online experiments have been widely adopted as golden rules to guide business decisions. However, key performance metrics such as mDAU may take a long time to mature. We propose a new framework that helps stakeholders make faster product launch decisions and facilitate long-term strategic planning. This framework relies on the surrogate modeling technique, which predicts the long-term impact on key decision metrics using earlier signals from intermediate metrics.